Friday, November 10, 2017

New Actuarial Standard on How To Put on Pants


Recent ASB proposals for modeling, pricing, and assumption setting standards of practice seem to be starting a trend of codifying every single action an actuary takes.  The latest release seems to confirm this theory.

An exposure draft, titled  "Lower Body Coverings" is currently in progress.

Apparently there is much concern in the actuarial community about the quality of work based on how one applies lower limb coverings. An improper procedure may result in further deterioration of judgment, confidence, and overall work product. To put it one way, the exposure draft deals with the risks of feeling drafts while exposed.

Saturday, October 7, 2017

New Insurance Products Announced for Undead


In an effort to find new business, insurers are dabbling into new, untapped markets.

Traditionally the insurance industry protected against two risks - death via Life Insurance and longevity via annuities.

The limiting factor to each of these is that you either had to be alive or die to collect a claim.  This was an issue if you were already dead, sort of dead, or came back to life after death.  Now, a new set of products is coming on to the market to meet those needs.

Friday, September 1, 2017

Bayesian Rhapsody

Hard to believe, it's been six months since the last entry. This one has been floating around for a bit.  The whole thing with Bayes is about updating likelihoods given more information. Let's see how Queen takes us on a journey. 
We start with a fundamental question about the nature of reality, and fact about landslides.
Is this the real life? Pr(Real Life) = ?
Is this just fantasy? Pr(Fantasy) = 1 - Pr(Real Life)
Caught in a landslide,
No escape from reality Pr(Real Life | Caught in a landslide ) = 1

Friday, March 3, 2017

The 12th Actuarial Speculative Fiction Contest



Below are stories from the 12th Actuarial Fiction Contest, with my own quick synopsis of the story and images from around the web that might work as a cover. Summaries and cover art are my own interpretations.  Please vote on your favorites.

Thursday, January 5, 2017

You Wouldn't Believe What Jacob Bernoulli Looks Like Now

What would it be like if historic mathematicians lived today and were as popular as some of the most notorious celebs?  In this series of posts (#mathgonewild) Between the Spreadsheets makes parallels between founders of major mathematical thought and current celebs, and we create some tabloid headings. Feel free to comment, argue, or add to the list.

The  Bernoulli's 


Ever heard the song "John -Jacob-Jinglehiemer Schmidt?"  Probably came from these guys, where most dudes in the family are names Johan or Jacob or Nick. The family has an impressive resume, but the tabloids are pretty good too.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Models and Drunks

I am not referring to Gigi or Gisele or Gumble or Griffin.  Rather, "models and drunks" is a contrite summary of a couple of my recent readings that I figured should find their way to this space. (By the way,  this confusion about models has happened before.)

First, models. I have long been a fan of the phrase that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." However, much to my shame, I know not where it came from.  Now I do. Thank you Twitter for enlightening me about George Box and his paper.   Not only am I know aware, but I have been shaken to my core. More on that later.

Second, drunks - and specifically how they walk.  The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow (http://leonardmlodinow.com/) is what I call a mathematician's apologetic - an attempt to make math accessible to the masses.   His book is part of my attempt to work through a reading list (again - thanks Twitter!) of math texts.  I give the guy a couple of stars for effort on the mathematical narration, but the real gold is in the cast of characters.  They will be featured in a future post.  In this post, I will leave you with flip flops.

Sunday, September 4, 2016

Vitality Compass vs. Longevity Illustrator

If you want to know how long you are going to live, you could consult a palm reader or some other mystic.  Alternatively you could look to science, math and academia.  But who wins between academics and actuaries?